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Prediction for CME (2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-28T12:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19556/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light imagery. It is associated with an M4.0 flare and eruption from AR 12975 (N12W01). The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193 around 2022-03-28T11:21Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest quadrant from the viewpoint of STEREO A EUVI 195. The shock from what is probably the combined front of this CME and the 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME was observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, it was followed by the sheath and the CME flux rope starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z (a more coherent magnetic field, rotations, and the sudden drop in proton density at the transition between the sheath to the CME flux rope). We might be seeing the second flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density. (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS)
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T01:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T06:29Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
Issued: 2022 Mar 29 1301 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20329
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Mar 2022, 1259UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Mar 2022 until 31 Mar 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 053
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 028
COMMENT: 
The possible Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday was detected by
CACTus as a partial halo with start time March 28th 12:00UT. After analysis
the estimated speed was found to be around 735 km/s and estimated time of
arrival early March 31st. This CME is followed by a partial halo CME that
has been detected by CACTus with reported start time March 28th 20:24UT.
After analysis the estimated speed was found to be around 784 km/s and
estimated time of arrival late March 31st.

Lead Time: 36.67 hour(s)
Difference: -4.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2022-03-29T13:01Z

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